KingstonSnows

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Weekend storm on track

School Forecast
through Friday January 5th
Last updated: 11:00AM Thursday January 4, 2024

Delay

0% (Nope)

Closing

0% (Nope)

Early Dismissal

0% (Nope)

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11:00AM Thursday Update

We're still about two and a half days out from the start of this weekend's snow storm, but everything continues to remain on track. Over the past 24 hours, confidence in an impactful storm has increased. Accumulating snow is likey to result in moderate to significant impacts Saturday night through Sunday.

The forecast:
Snow is expected to begin around 7PM Saturday. Steady snow saturday night may fall at moderate to heavy intensity. Several inches of snow on the ground by Sunday morning. Steady snow -slight chance of sleet- throughout the day on Sunday, ending by 7PM.

The remaining uncertainty:
It is becoming more likely that the storm will develop bands of potentially heavy snow Saturday night. These bands will contribute to higher snowfall totals in the areas that they pass over, but the exact path that these bands still remains uncertain. Trends over the past 24 hours have shown an increased probability of Kingston and Ulster County being impacted by these snow bands Saturday night. This is contributing to the increased confidence in heavy snow. That being said, the current "likely range" of 4 to 11 inches reflects this uncertainty. Currently there is a 75% chance of more than 4 inches of snow, a 25% chance of more than 11 inches of snow. There is a 50/50 chance of 8 inches of snow.

The impacts:
Moderate to significant snow impacts are expected this weekend. Roads will begin to deteriorate after 7PM Saturday. Travel Saturday night will be hazardous due to slick, snow-covered roads as well as potentially reduced visibility due to potentially heavy snowfall. Several inches of snow on the ground by sunrise Sunday will result in the need for plows and shovels. Continued steady snow during the day on Sunday will result in snow slick to snow covered roads throughout the day. After snow ends by 7PM Sunday, slick roads will continue into Sunday night as storm clean up continues. School impacts will be possible Monday moring, depending on how much snow falls the day before.

Next Update:
On Friday

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11:00AM Wednesday Update

Focus for this week continues to be on this weekend's winter storm. There have been no major forecast changes since yesterday. The big picture for this weekend remains set: a storm currently over California will move across the country. As it swings by the Gulf of Mexico, it will intensify and pick up additional moisture, eventually bringing wintry weather across parts of New York beginning Saturday night.

While the big picture remains set, the specific details continue to be refined. Currently the most likely start time for snow in Ulster County is between 7PM and 12AM Saturday night. Snow is likely into Sunday morning, eventually ending between 12PM Sunday and 12AM Monday. The main source of uncertainty at this time is how heavily snow falls. This will depend mainly on the specific track that the storm takes which will determine where the heaviest areas of snow move. While there is a high probability of snow, specific snow amounts in Ulster County may still range from a relatively minor 1 to 3 inches, to a significant 6 to 12 inches. Slight trends overnight have been toward the lower end of these extremes, though we'll have to see if this persists today.

With the start time of the storm still being over three days out, the forecast will continue to be refined. Never-the-less, if you haven't done so already, now is a great time to begin ensuring that you're snow-ready: find the shovels, gas up the snow blower, stock up on rock salt.

Next Update:
Tomorrow

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10:00AM Tuesday Update

Welcome to 2024! This year is off to a quiet start with a mix of sun and clouds, but all weather eyes are on this weekend as our first potential snow storm of the season approaches.

This week will feature a dry mix of sun and clouds through Friday. Temperatures will run near normal with afternoon high temperatures around 40. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the 20s. Normal temperatures for this time of year are 37 in the afternoon and 23 overnight.

As we head into the weekend, a potent storm system will impact New York. This storm is currently approaching the west coast of the US and will work its way across the US this week. At the same time, a cold high pressure area to our north will build in, reinforcing cold air over our area. The combination of the storm's moisture and cold air over the region is likely to result in an accumulating snow. Currently, expecting clouds to increase over the region on Saturday. Snow will be possible after 7PM Saturday. Snow is likely on Sunday before tapering off Sunday night.

While the big picture is set for this weekend, some sources of uncertainty remain. The first one is how far north the storm pushes. As mentioned, a cold high pressure to our north will help reinforce cold air as the storm approaches. However, this high pressure will also help steer the storm. A stronger high pressure will block the approaching storm, shunting the heaviest snow potential to our south. A weaker high pressure will allow the storm to push further northard, allowing the heaviest precipitation to spread into the Hudson Valley. We will also have to keep an eye on temperatures Sunday afternoon, particularly if a weaker high pressure allows heavier precipitation to push northward. A weakening high pressure could allow cold air to erode as the storm progresses, resulting in snow possibly changing to a mix. This range in details is expressed in the current extreme range of the snow gauge. The details are expected to become more refined as the week progresses.

While it is too early to determine exact snowfall totals for this weekend's storm, now is the perfect time to make sure you are prepared for another New York winter. Based on the current forecast, at least some road impacts are expected Saturday night through Sunday night.

Next Update:
On Wednesday

-Ethan