Light snow & ice overnight

School Forecast
For Thursday February 13th
Last updated: 9:00PM Wednesday February 12, 2025

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9:00PM Wednesday:

No significant changes to the forecast. It's currently about 27°F with intermittent flurries in the Kingston area. Light snow showers and flurries will be possible over the next couple hours with steadier snow likely building in around 12AM. A couple of hours of steady snow is likely before a change over to sleet/freezing rain around 4AM. Any falling ice will likely change to light rain/drizzle after 7AM as temperatures rise slightly above freezing. Intermittent drizzle is possible between 7AM and 10AM. Up to 1 inch of snow with a light glaze of ice is possible. Main roads will likely be mainly wet by the morning, but side roads could be slick. School delays remain the most likely outcome for tomorrow (60%), but there is a better chance of normal classes (30%) than school closings (10%).

Our next chance of snow will be Saturday, but the next realistic shot at school impacts likely won't be until at least next Friday. Be safe when heading out tomorrow.
-Ethan

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10:00PM Tuesday:

Quick update to discuss the Wednesday night storm that I've been monitoring since last week. Over the past 24 hours, the trend has been for a less potent storm. Essentially, it is now looking likely that drier air will get mixed into the storm preventing it from fully coalescing, limiting snow amounts. As a result, snow snow showers will be possible between about 8PM Wednesday and 2AM Thursday, followed by the potential for freezing rain through 7AM. Any snow accumulations will be a dusting to 1 inch, and there is the potential for a light glaze of ice - up to about 0.1 inches. Temperatures will reach the low-30s Wednesday afternoon and be in the upper 20s/low 30s Wednesday night, likely rising above freezing between 6AM and 8AM Thursday.

The Impacts:
The combination of very light snow and a coating of freezing rain will likely result in slick roads late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Main roads may just remain wet; however, a glaze of ice is possible on walkways, driveways, cars, and side roads. School impacts remain more likely than not across Ulster County. School impacts are very likely across western Ulster County (Ellenville, Onteora, TriValley, Livingston Manor, Margaretville, and Roundout) where a the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory highlighting the potential for hazardous travel Thursday morning. Here in eastern Ulster County (Kingston, Saugerties, New Paltz, Wallkill, Highland), there is not currently a Winter Weather Advisory, although one could be issued on Wednesday. Regardless, due to the timing of any freezing rain, there is a decent shot at a delay - that could possibly be upgraded to a closing in the worst case scenario.

Similar Storms:
At the moment, the Wednesday night storm is looking most similar to Kingston's February 6, 2020 two-hour Delay and Kingston's February 16, 2021 "snow day". In the 2020 storm, about 0.20 inches of sleet/ice fell between 1AM and 7AM resulting in a 2-hour delay across most of Ulster County with cancellations in the Catskills. In the 2021 storm, about 0.25" of ice and 0.1" of snow fell between 11PM and 8AM resulting in a delay that was upgraded to a closing. The main difference between these two storms and our current one is that any freezing rain Wednesday night is likely to be less than the past events. This means the chances of school impacts are lower than identical repeats of those two storms.

I'll aim to have one final update by 10PM Wednesday.
-Ethan 🙂

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8:00AM Monday:

Saturday night's storm brought about 2.8 inches of snow to the region which underperformed the likely 4 to 8 inches that was forecast. This was just under but on par the with the low end of the "extreme range" of 3 to 9 inches. The storm underperformed due to the snow ending several hours earlier than initially expected, resulting in less time for snow to accumulate. That being said, three storms will pass through New York over the next week. Two are likely to bring us snow, I am continuing to monitor the potential for one to impact schools.

The Forecast:
Slight chance of snow Tuesday night between 10PM and 3AM Wednesday morning. The best chances for snow will be south of Kingston - over NYC and Long Island. Here in the Ulster County, little or no snow accumulation is expected. Wednesday night, a more impactful storm moves through. Snow is likely between 10PM and 3AM with snow and/or sleet possible between 3AM and 7AM. An inch or two of snow is likely across the region with the potential for a light glaze of ice. Following Wednesday night's storm, the next chance for snow will be Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Light snow accumulation will be possible with that storm as well.

The Impacts:
Tuesday night, no impacts are currently expected in the Kingston area. Worst case scenario here in Kingston area is a dusting of snow overnight that makes for patchy slick spots. The chances of a school delay are less than 10%. Wednesday night into Thursday, slick roads are likely. Roads will be drivable for those who have to commute to work, but there will likely be school impacts. Whether those impacts are delays or cancellations will depend on how much falls and when the snow/sleet ends. There is a good chance that sometime on Tuesday the National Weather Service will issue a Winter Weather Advisory highlighting the potential for hazardous travel from light snow and a glaze of ice during the Wednesday night - Thursday morning period. For Saturday's storm slick roads are again possible in the afternoon/evening.

Have a great week!
-Ethan 🙂